Scientific American magazine has a similar article entitled "How Much Is Left?" It was published on August 24, 2010. The SA article lists the reserves of other elements besides minerals. It actually dared to show that Peak Oil will happen around 2014.
Even more important than oil, we also have a serious problem with fresh water. Lack of fresh water in countries like Egypt and India and Pakistan will lead to revolutions. Fresh water is necessary for survival. Farmers turn fresh water into food. Without fresh water there is no food.
It is very hard for people to understand the concept of years of reserves left and peak production. If we have 40 years of oil left given the current rate of consumption, the vast majority will think that we'll be fine for the next 40 years. After all, we have 40 years of the stuff left! What me worry!?
What people do not realize is that the extraction profile of every non-renewable resource follows a bell shaped curve. Production rate rises to a peak and falls from that peak. If the consumption rate remains constant at the peak year while the production rate falls, the price will rise. And it will rise each year until the price is high enough to destroy demand and force the consumption rate to go down.
Basically it means that the price will zigzag making higher highs and lower highs. Each higher high will bring consumption rate down to match the lower production rate. Price will fall temporarily when an equilibrium is reached. But it will go up again as the rate of production drops further.
We may have 40 years of oil left. But we will be consuming less and less oil as price rises. Understand that rate of production is just as important as years of reserves left.
